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Central Bankers vs. The Bond Market | Roger Hirst
Forward Guidance
Is It 50 Basis Points of Cuts Being Priced?
How wide is the band of distributions as, I mean, we can look at the options prices. Is it sort of 50 basis points of cuts being priced because they think there's one possibility that they will cut by two times to a quarter point hikes? And that's 100%. Or is it 50% of cutsBeing priced because they're pricing in, you know, 150 of hikes and then 200 of cuts and then you merge those together. And that's minus 50? So I'm going to use the Fed Fund's curve, which is sort of implied interest rates, implied Fed Fund's target rate. It currently is around about 95. The way they work is 100 minus 95 equals 5
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