Labor Differential and Recession Signals

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, breaks down why the Fed's decision to pause was both premature and political, arguing Powell is "committing policy errors to quietly dig at the administration." She explains why the Fed should have cut today — and why she believes we need 100 basis points of cuts given deteriorating labor market data that Powell is choosing to ignore. Danielle unpacks the DOJ subpoena drama, revealing that betting markets dropped Powell's odds of leaving by August from 90% to 60% after the charges, and she believes he's now "enjoying the cat and mouse" with Trump. She revisits her open letter calling for the FOMC to elect Chris Waller as chair, explains why Rick Rieder would be "inviting the fox into the hen house," and shares her bold prediction: unemployment will have a 6 handle within a year. Plus, she discusses the hidden stress signals in Buy Now Pay Later data and why gold is behaving like a "meme stock."

Links:

Danielle's open letter: https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/10/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-2/

Danielle's open letter part 2: https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/22/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-ii-public/

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome

1:05 The Powell subpoena: Danielle's reaction

3:35 Betting markets: Powell leaving odds dropped

4:51 Powell is the cat, Trump is the mouse

5:54 Why Powell is being political by NOT cutting rates

6:35 How Powell moved the goalposts on rate probability

7:32 The contradiction: Integrity vs. ignoring the American people

8:33 Financial conditions are easy because of passive investing, not the Fed

9:19 The shutdown has affected data integrity

10:05 Outlook for the year: Rate cuts coming?

10:50 Conference Board labor differential — recession signal

12:06 Should he have cut today? Yes. We need 100 basis points of cuts

12:52 Open Letter Part Two: Why the FOMC should have elected Chris Waller

15:03 Rick Rieder: Inviting the fox into the hen house?

16:34 Who will be the next Fed chair?

17:35 What we don't understand about Fed chair transitions

19:04 The questions reporters should have asked Powell

21:29 Hidden signal: Google searches for "file unemployment" keep rising

22:28 Buy Now Pay Later for dental bills and utilities — the stress is real

25:41 Gen Z risk appetite and the environment that shapes investors

26:45 Gold is a meme now

29:01 DoubleLine roundtable: Long utilities, short financials

31:14 Commercial real estate capitulation and bankruptcies

32:14 Bold prediction: Unemployment will have a 6 handle by next year

33:20 Parting thoughts: Don't forget about your neighbors

33:45 Closing