Are we heading toward a recession—or just stuck in macroeconomic purgatory? In this episode of Excess Returns, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler sit down with Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge Wealth, to explore the uncertain territory between headline-driven panic and hard data reality. From the implications of sweeping tariffs to the capital account war no one's talking about,
Cameron offers one of the sharpest macro takes we've heard. We cover where the market might go next, how investors should respond to volatility, and what signals to trust in a confusing environment.
Topics Covered:
Why we’re in a “no man’s land” between tariffs and hard data
The potential economic fallout of 145% tariffs on China
Capital account war: Why treasury demand may be fading
What the collapse in shipping and trucking data tells us
How margin compression could trigger job cuts
The case for value over growth after a Mag 7 blow-off
Using technicals, sentiment, and positioning to spot turning points
Why quality stocks may beat traditional defensives
Whether hedging is worth it vs. holding T-bills
Practical strategies for rebalancing through market chaos
