Why Michael Thought Q4 Could Be a Top

Is the crypto cycle already over, or is this just a reset before one last push? Michael Nadeau from The DeFi Report joins Ryan to break down why he went 70% cash ahead of the flash crash, what late-cycle data he’s watching, and the signals that would flip him back risk on. We dig into Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average, ETH’s $8–10K scenarios, slowing ETF flows, rising leverage, and whether global liquidity and AI could still drive a melt-up. Michael explains why this cycle has felt muted, what would confirm a top, and how he’s positioning into year-end.

Michael Nadeau & The DeFi Report:

https://x.com/JustDeauIt

https://thedefireport.io/

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TIMESTAMPS & RESOURCES

0:00 Intro

0:48 Crypto Cycle: Is It Over? Mike's Risk-Off Strategy 
https://thedefireport.io/research/portfolio-update

2:15 Flash Crash Insights 

3:14 Crypto Investor Profiles 
https://thedefireport.io/

5:40 Understanding Market Cycles  https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index

7:34 Late Cycle Analysis  https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index

12:41 Shifting to Risk Off 
https://thedefireport.io/research/portfolio-update

18:54 On-Chain Data Insights  https://thedefireport.io/research/where-might-eth-top#scenario-analysis-for-eth

21:47 Stages of the Cycle
https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index

26:12 Wealth Distribution Phase
https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index

28:15 Realized Profits Comparison  https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index

32:00 Global Liquidity Discussion 
https://x.com/RaoulGMI/status/1977140156386660654  https://x.com/RaoulGMI/status/1977498706510487748

33:52 Gold vs. Bitcoin 
https://x.com/merlijntrader/status/1978793051062509966

1:01:52 The Shittiest Bull Market Ever 
https://x.com/cryptorbion/status/1979614717707489461

1:08:31 What Would Change Mike's Mind?
https://www.coinglass.com/bull-market-peak-signals

1:17:14 Future of the DeFi Report 
https://thedefireport.io/research/portfolio-update 
https://thedefireport.io/

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