Jason Furman on the Future of the World Economy
The Good Fight
The Uncertainty of Inflation
Economists have predicted 17 out of the last three recessions, but I trust you more than the average economist. So are we stuck at the moment? Clearly inflation has come down somewhat over the last 12 months, but we're also above that 3% that you posited us where we probably want to be a few minutes ago. And look, one thing economists need to do is be honest about their standard errors. If you look at the survey of professional forecasters in May of 2021, they said there was less than a 1% chance that inflation would exceed 4%.
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