Is There a Recession?

The Fed will pivot, but they look at forward information while recession data is lagged. We wouldn't pay attention to an official announcement about a recession beginning or ending. By the time the unemployment rate is heading up, you may already be in a recession. And that's why we're just being patient and letting this all play out.

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Rebecca Hotsko chats with Chance Finucane, who is a partner, and Chief Investment Officer at Oxbow Advisors. They discuss Chance’s current outlook for the market and economy for 2023, why he expects a recession sometime in 2023, what’s driving investors’ complacency in the market, and much more!

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00 - Intro

02:41 - Why Chance expects a recession sometime in 2023 and the stock market to decline by about 20%.

03:55 - What’s driving investors’ complacency in the market, despite being so pessimistic.

07:43 - What a Fed Pivot means for the stock market and the economy.

10:54 - Which leading indicators Chance is relying on to help inform his investment decisions.

11:51 - What would be the catalyst to cause investors to start selling.

12:52 - Why Chance thinks the defensive sectors are the most overvalued parts of the market still.

24:34 - The sectors that typically outperform coming out of a recession.

24:34 - How much the stock market would drop if earnings downgrade as expected.

26:21 - What Oxbow’s investment process looks like for their high growth equity strategy.

27:58 - Why he thinks earnings estimates are still too high for 2023.

30:20 - Why Google is one of their biggest holdings for their equity strategy and looks attractive at today’s price.

31:32 - Which tech stocks he thinks are undervalued and overvalued at today’s prices.

42:10 - Why Chance is still bullish on energy long term despite recently reducing some exposure to positions.

48:27 - Why he thinks this next decade could be more like the 1970s with waves of inflation.

And much, much more!

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members.
Check out: Oxbow Advisors.
Related Episode: Listen to MI231: History's Biggest Financial Bubble w/ David Hay, or watch the video.

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