Why 9/11 Is a Hard Counterfactual

In this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck tackles one of the most consequential counterfactuals in modern history: what if 9/11 never happened? He explores how the attacks fundamentally altered the American psyche, shattered a post–Cold War sense of security, and transformed how Americans consume news, driving the demand for instant information and accelerating the technologies that now dominate our lives. The conversation examines how U.S. politics, foreign policy, and polarization might have evolved without the War on Terror—no Patriot Act, no Department of Homeland Security, no Iraq War—and whether the political forces that produced figures like Trump and Obama would have emerged at all. From global relationships with Russia and China to the delayed reckoning over economic inequality and partisan division, this episode traces the ripple effects of an event that reshaped everything, and asks what might have filled the vacuum if it had never occurred.

Then, Jonathan Martin, the politics bureau chief and senior political columnist at POLITICO joins the Chuck ToddCast to walk through his bold predictions for the political landscape heading into 2026, starting with the idea that Donald Trump’s second term is less about governing and more about validation, legacy, and self-mythmaking. The conversation explores Trump as a pop-culture figure obsessed with monuments, family dynasty, and loyalty—rather than policy—along with why the country proved vulnerable to a political huckster in the first place. Martin breaks down why a Supreme Court vacancy could reshape the cycle, why GOP turnout may sag without Trump on the ballot, and which Senate races—from Nebraska to Florida to Ohio—could unexpectedly come into play.

The episode also looks ahead to the fault lines inside both parties: potential Trump family bids, early jockeying for the post-Trump GOP, and Democratic candidates who may help—or hurt—their own chances. Martin weighs in on foreign policy flashpoints that could define the next two years, from Iran to Venezuela to Trump’s transactional approach with China, as well as internal administration instability and cabinet shakeups. Plus, sharp takes on approval ratings, California’s unsettled political bench, why political dynasties still matter, and—because it wouldn’t be a Chuck Todd conversation without it—a few college football predictions to close things out.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 “What if” 9/11 never happened?

03:45 9/11 changed how Americans consumed information

04:30 9/11 was the first true “hit” on the homeland

05:30 9/11 create a new sense of vulnerability in America

06:45 The trauma from 9/11 changed the American psyche

08:45 Prior to 9/11, America was living in a post cold-war calm

09:30 In 2000, the west was trying to court Russia into joining them

10:15 Both parties will bullish on integrating China into the world

11:45 Bush would have been more western hemisphere focused

12:45 Without 9/11, Washington would have been more polarized

13:45 The Bush presidency essentially began on 9/11

15:30 9/11 triggered a “need” for immediate information

16:30 Social media is created to provide immediate info

17:15 There’s no Patriot Act, Iraq war, War on Terror without 9/11

18:30 There would be no Department of Homeland Security

19:45 Homeland Security eventually became an immigration agency

21:45 The isolationist strain of MAGA may not materialize

23:15 Some of the responses to 9/11 led to rise of MAGA politics

25:00 9/11 created a new sense of urgency for following the news

26:15 9/11 sped up the adoption of new information technologies

28:15 Do we not have Trump or Obama without hyper-engaged politics?

29:00 John Kerry probably isn’t the nominee in 2004 without 9/11

30:30 What replaces 9/11 if it never happened?

30:45 Financial crisis still happens anyways

31:45 9/11 delayed the “uniparty reckoning”

32:45 Occupy Wall Street would supplant Tea Party as driving force in 2010

34:00 Without Iraq War, there’s less distinction between Clinton & Obama

35:30 9/11 delayed polarization, economic issues by a few years

37:30 “If 9/11 never happened” final conclusions

40:30 “What Ifs” left on the cutting room floor

49:00 Jonathan Martin joins the Chuck ToddCast

51:15 Of his 16 predictions for 2026, which ones stood out the most?

52:00 Trump’s second term is a victory lap, more about validation

53:00 Trump is obsessed with building monuments to himself

54:30 Trump doesn’t take the job seriously

56:30 Trump will likely slap his name on the memorial bridge

57:00 Trump is most like Teddy Roosevelt

58:15 Trump is more a pop culture archetype than a political one

59:00 The country turned out to be vulnerable to a huckster

59:30 Prediction of a Supreme Court seat coming open in 2026

1:00:30 Alito more likely to retire than Thomas

1:01:45 By October, it will be clear that senate is in play

1:03:00 Nebraska Dems cleared field for Dan Osborne

1:04:00 Trump not being on ballot could really suppress GOP turnout

1:05:30 Rumors that Don Jr. could run in Wyoming?

1:07:30 Folks in Jackson Hole with money always exploring political runs

1:08:15 Potential SCOTUS nominees if there’s a retirement?

1:09:45 The senate appointees from FL & OH get no traction

1:11:00 Paxton vs. Crockett would be a fascinating race in TX

1:11:45 Dems have a much better shot of winning in OH than TX

1:14:00 Biden could have cut deals with McConnell if government was split

1:15:15 Predictions on next country Trump hits with air strikes?

1:15:45 Regime in Iran could collapse in 2026

1:17:30 Netanyahu could be seen as most unstable force in middle east

1:18:30 Venezuela could become a huge political problem for Trump

1:20:30 In 1st term, leaks were about Trump, now they’re about cabinet

1:21:15 Kash Patel, Kristi Noem most likely to get booted from administration

1:23:30 GOP has political liabilities in Florida, senate race could be interesting

1:25:45 Could Jared Moskowitz be the wild card in the FL senate race?

1:26:30 Trump could be at 30% approval by Labor Day

1:27:15 Dem candidates that could hurt their chances by writing a book?

1:28:00 Without Covid, Buttigieg is likely the nominee in 2020

1:29:30 Newsom is easy to create a caricature of

1:30:30 Buttigieg is too smart to win in electoral politics

1:31:30 CA governor’s race field still doesn’t feel set

1:34:15 Swalwell can raise money, has backing from Pelosi

1:36:15 "Former mayor of SF” is a title that will sink you nationally

1:37:45 Ro Khanna avoids being associated with California

1:38:30 Which Republicans are most likely to challenge Vance?

1:39:45 A Trump will be a candidate, Donald obsessed with family name in politics

1:41:00 Trump won’t just hand off his coalition to Vance

1:42:15 Trump wants to create a political dynasty

1:44:30 Trump will get cozy with China, then claim he averted WW3

1:45:30 College football predictions

1:59:00 Chuck’s college football playoff reaction

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