The Rewind: Uncertainty
The Memo by Howard Marks
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Will the Recovery Be v Shaped or a U W or L?
Economists and investors make inferences from past patterns, but these are unreliable at best. The future is determined by thousands of factors such as the internal workings of economies or people's psyche. It would take an exceptional mind to deal with all these factors simultaneously and reach a better conclusion than most other people.
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