Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

New paper published by Hudson Bay Capital, written by Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran, “ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy”:

https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/635102_Activist_Treasury_Issuance_-_Hudson_Bay_Capital_Research.pdf

Nouriel Roubini’s book discussed in the interview, “Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy”: https://www.amazon.com/Political-Cycles-Macroeconomy-Alberto-Alesina/dp/0262510944

Nouriel Roubini’s latest book, “Megathreats”: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/nouriel-roubini/megathreats/9780316284059/?lens=little-brown

Follow Nouriel Roubini on Twitter https://x.com/Nouriel

Follow Stephen Miran on Twitter https://x.com/SteveMiran

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:18) What Is "Activist Treasury Issuance" (ATI)?

(08:00) The Mechanics Of How The U.S. Treasury Has Altered Engaged In "Activist Treasury Issuance"

(20:52) VanEck Ad

(24:21) Activist Treasury Issuance Played A Role In Boosting Asset Values, And In Avoiding A Recession (And Might Have Caused A "No Landing" Instead of a "Soft Landing")

(29:53) History of Treasury's "Bill Share": GFC, Money Market Reform, March 2020 Panic

(33:44) How Much Does Current Treasury Issuance Differ From Historical Issuance Patterns?

(45:43) Permissionless Ad

(46:46) Does Government Borrowing "Crowd Out" Private Investment?

(59:09) Will ATI Continue In The Next Presidential Administration?

(01:07:20) Long-Term Interest Rates Could Rise and Force a "Meaningful Repricing of Risk Assets"

(01:10:49) It's Not Just The Fed - U.S. Treasury Has "Forward Guidance" Now Too

(01:13:02) Nouriel Roubini's Closing Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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