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Ukraine and the United States
There's still a chance that something unexpected will happen and change the tide of the war. But when it comes down to the core calculus here, Ukraine is the agricultural bed to support a future Russia. The economic benefit of Ukraine is crystal clear in favor of Russia, which is why Putin cannot lose. I'm talking 60%, 70% probability Ukraine loses, but there's still 20%, 30% probability of the unimaginable happening.