Sam Burns, chief strategist of Mill Street Research, an independent research firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 56.
In this episode, Burns explains how he deploys a top-down macro research approach with bottoms-up analysis. He outlines why he’s recently been more bullish on equities and risk assets in at least a year.
According to Burns, the economy is “not great, but it’s not as bad as expected.” He pointed out that the market had priced in much of last year's pessimism. Moreover, he’s not expecting an imminent recession like many were at the end of last year, noting that it’s, “at least being put off, if not, delayed until maybe in the next year.”
Sam has over 20 years of experience as a market strategist, providing analysis and commentary to institutional investors globally. Prior to founding Mill Street Research in 2016, Sam worked as a senior strategist at leading firms, including Oppenheimer & Co., Brown Brothers Harriman, State Street Global Markets, and Ned Davis Research. Mill Street Research provides a suite of consistently updated research reports for institutional investors covering asset allocation, country allocation, sector and industry selection, and a robust quantitative stock selection process. We also provide customized work and special research projects for clients.
0:00 Intro
0:31 Background
2:53 Building an independent research firm
3:23 Combining top-down macro research with bottom-up analysis
5:36 Macro analysis
6:15 Distortions in the data
7:00 The economy is doing OK
7:46 Don’t think we’re heading for an imminent recession
8:45 Things aren’t going to be as bad as the bears are saying
9:49 Fed rate hikes impact on the economy
13:19 Why has the labor market held up?
17:30 Inflation
21:45 Can we get back to the 2% target?
25:50 Fiscal policy
29:44 Debt
33:09 Assessment of the markets
36:07 Opportunities
52:41 Yield curve
