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Why the Recession Conventional Wisdom is Wrong

The Breakdown

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The Fed's Tightening Cycle and the Market's Future

The main reason for risk assets to crash in 2022 was the Fed's tightening cycle. The tightening cycle is likely 90% done, with the Fed talking about two more hikes ahead. According to the ICI, money market funds hit a record 5.4 trillion as of June 28. We see no reason for changing our bullish stance, which we've held for all of 2023. What could go wrong? The market is estimating a 25-35% probability of recession in the US.

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