The Importance of Percentile Projection in Baseball

Zips tends to assume a running weighted average. And that's kind of worked out this year. But the thing is, Zips knows that it doesn't really know how good he is. It thinks that on average, he's a 334 hitter the next year,. That's his underlying ability, but he might truly be a 350 hitter. He might be a 320 hitter. He may be a 300 hitter or even more. Because essentially it's an answer. You never really know what the underlying probability of any event in baseball is.