How to Make Accurate Forecasts

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Spencer Greensburg: If I had to just use one source, that's probably what I would use as well. He says Philip Tettlock is kind of the grandfather of forecasting research and has been working on this project for 40 years. The good judgment project tries to identify people who have very good judgment overall and then try to get wisdom out of them for the general public. And maybe we can get you back on the 80,000 hours podcast to be the first guest to come on for the third time.

What are the best strategies for improving ourselves? How are line managers useful? Why does Rob prefer long-form content for the 80,000 Hours podcast? What are the sorts of things humans value and why? In what ways do research ethics considerations fail to achieve their stated objectives? Why are prediction markets useful?

Rob Wiblin is the Head of Research at 80,000 Hours where he investigates how people can do more good in the course of their career and produces a long-form interview show called the 80,000 Hours Podcast. He studied genetics and economics in Australia before moving to the UK to help develop the emerging field of effective altruism. You can learn more about Rob at robwiblin.com, learn more about his research work at 80000hours.org, and follow him on social media at @robertwiblin.

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