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Analyzing Indicators of a Declining Economy
In this chapter, they discuss various indicators used to determine the state of the economy, including financial conditions, credit spreads, labor market weakness, lack of fiscal boost, eroding pandemic savings, and the ending of mortgage forbearance programs. They also talk about the impact of the recession and the expiration of the employee retention credit, as well as retail sales decline and increasing corporate bankruptcies. The potential timing of a recession and its impact on the bond market are examined, along with concerns about increasing deficits and portfolio positioning strategies.