Market Timing and the Four-Year Cycle Thesis

Crypto has spent years obsessing over tokens, airdrops, and speculation. But what about the unsexy businesses actually making money?

Arthur Hayes and Adam Schlegel join Laura Shin to talk about Maelstrom's $250M private equity fund targeting crypto's most profitable, yet overlooked, companies, $50M revenue businesses with 50% margins that VCs can't touch and exchanges won't pay cash for.

But while everyone frames this as just another fund, Hayes and Schlegel argue it's actually the missing piece in crypto's maturation: a cash buyer for founders who've done their time and want out without four-year earnouts. 

Plus: Why Asian crypto companies with monster margins get ignored by Western capital.

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• Binance

• Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of BitMEX & CIO at Maelstrom

• Adam Schlegel, Head of Private Equity at Maelstrom

Links:

• Previous appearances on Unchained:

• The Chopping Block: Arthur Hayes & Tom Lee; Hyperliquid vs Aster, DATs & ETH

• Arthur Hayes and Hanson Birringer on Hyperliquid’s Success (And What Could Stop It)

• Bloomberg: Arthur Hayes’ Family Office Seeks $250M for Buyout Fund

• Coindesk: Arthur Hayes’ Maelstrom Seeks $250M Private Equity Fund to Acquire Crypto Firms: Bloomberg

• Akshat’s tweet announcing the fund

Timestamps:

🎬 0:00 Intro

📰 1:08 Maelstrom’s $250M private equity fund to buy crypto firms

👤 1:42 Adam’s background and path from Morgan Stanley to Haveli to Maelstrom

💼 3:51 Why Maelstrom believes the next crypto boom is in private equity

📈 4:42 Arthur on how crypto investing evolved from beta → VC → PE

🌏 10:05 Geographic focus: Asia and LatAm’s overlooked crypto firms

🧭 11:49 How Maelstrom evaluates targets and performs due diligence

🛠️ 17:02 Inside Maelstrom’s $250M anchor fund and LP co-invest model

👀 26:01 The types of companies Maelstrom is targeting

⚙️ 30:16 Fund structure and Arthur’s role in Maelstrom PE

📊 36:05 “The four-year cycle is dead”: Arthur on today’s crypto market

💰 39:18 Investor requirements and $5M minimum commitment

🏦 42:09 Coinbase’s Echo acquisition and what it means for exchanges

⚔️ 47:59 The perps war, how DEXs are forcing CEXs toward zero-fee trading

💥 52:18 Binance, ADL liquidations, and leverage risk

🔮 56:27 Prediction markets: Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Limitless

💵 59:06 Stablecoins and rates, why Tether and Circle could lose to Ethena

📈 1:04:15 Who wins the next phase of crypto’s evolution

🔚 1:08:14 Closing thoughts

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