How to Avoid the Conjunction Fallacy

Elle Azer says forecasters would have done well to, would have, could have avoided the conjunction fallacy by noticing the word and being very wary of it. What you need is just like you just need to be able to notice that there's two different things being certain. That was what made me think of methods of rationality where somebody starts talking about a plot that has like more than two steps or what was it? The practical limit on how complex something can be is three things going right at once. And since you never wanted to put things all the way to the limit, the practical limit was actually two.