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5min chapter
K.C. Hamann - Quantifying Conviction (S3E1)
Flirting with Models
Investing in a Stock That's Worth More Than Where It Was Trading
NorthStar Asset Management bought 3% of a hedge fund that was only 40 basis points to its portfolio. The company's value looked like it was worth 70% more than where it was trading, which is rare for NorthStar. John MacIntosh: If you have a good mechanism to rank conviction, then you should be able to rank when people change their mind. He says if someone has extreme confidence repeatedly and then you see a reversal in thinking, it may be the person selling the stock.
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