3min chapter

The Inquiry cover image

Is Myanmar on the brink of collapse?

The Inquiry

CHAPTER

Geopolitical Influences and Uncertain Transition in Myanmar

This chapter examines the dynamic influence of China and Russia in Myanmar, focusing on how both countries navigate their support for different factions to uphold their interests. It also discusses the military's cautious approach towards Chinese dominance and evolving plans amidst the post-coup turmoil.

00:00
Speaker 3
China has been playing the long game by supporting both sides so they'll have some influence regarding what the outcome is but they're making concerns making sure that infrastructure for their oil and gas is not hampered. And they made arrangements with both groups to defend and avoid targeting Chinese fuel infrastructure running through the country.
Speaker 1
They made arrangements with Russia very close.
Speaker 3
A lot of the Burmese military hardware is actually supplied by the Russians. So the difference between Russian help and Chinese help is that the military has always been concerned that if they rely too much on the Chinese that China can very easily dominate Myanmar. Russia is not physically located right next to Burma and there's no fear that Russia can dominate Burma in the same way that China has the potential to. So there is reliance in particular upon Russia. I think outside of Southeast Asia, Myanmar's closest friend is actually
Speaker 1
Russia. After the 2021 coup, did military chiefs ever indicate a timeframe for handing back to civilian rule?
Speaker 3
The main claim was that they would hold elections in a year and then it became two years. And then when you have the actual physical resistance to the military, the outbreak of actual fighting, they step back from many claims that they would hold elections within a certain timeframe. They would have to have serious gains again in the Civil War and really, really strike some serious blows against their opponents, which is not happening now before I think they would return to any strict promise of a timeline for elections.
Speaker 1
So what do we know about those opponents? Let's meet
Speaker 7
our next expert witness.
Speaker 6
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Speaker 6
Who's
Speaker 2
fighting who?

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