The Future of Autonomous Taxis

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We also estimate that auto sales might have peaked, at least for the short term, in 2017. And ultimately, oil demand could decline by 30 million barrels per day by 2035. We still expect there to be a shortfall relative to expectations in the next five to 10 years. At 25 cents per mile, robo taxis are more cost effective than most short haul journeys.

Welcome to the Big Ideas Monday Miniseries, brought to you by the For Your Innovation Podcast.

Big Ideas is meant to enlighten investors on the long-term impact of innovation. This annual research report seeks to highlight the technological breakthroughs evolving today and creating the potential for super-exponential growth tomorrow.

We believe that innovation is taking off now, corroborating our original research and boosting our confidence that ARK’s strategies are on the right side of change.

To learn more, view Big Ideas 2023.

This week’s Big Ideas Monday Mini Episode focuses on Autonomous Ride Hail.

Today, autonomous ride-hail services delight riders across ~15 cities internationally* and should scale into widespread commercial adoption within the next ten years.

Autonomous technology should reduce the cost of mobility to ~12% the average cost of human-driven ride-hail service today.

ARK’s research suggests that global autonomous ride-hail platforms will create $14 trillion in enterprise value, based on $4 trillion in revenue during the next five years.

Watch the video version here.

*This number includes both commercial and non-commercial services operating at the end of 2022. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.