Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show. He argues the Fed is unlikely to cut rates in September despite market expectations, with only a one-in-three chance due to FOMC dynamics and persistent inflation. He expects radical Fed reforms under Trump's nominee Steve Miran, including potentially moving the Fed out of Washington to restore independence. Whalen is bullish on gold as the world returns to sound money, sees housing prices weakening with a major reset possible in 2028, and highlights SoFi as outperforming Bitcoin threefold. He warns the biggest market risk comes from crypto platform implosions while remaining optimistic about Trump's policies despite concerns about subject matter expertise in new appointments.
Sponsor:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen
1:42 Big picture outlook - Fed rate cuts unlikely despite expectations
3:22 FOMC dynamics - need majority for rate cuts, only one in three chance for September
5:09 Fed changes ahead - Steve Miran and radical reforms coming
7:17 Fed independence and getting out of Washington politics
8:39 Fiscal reality - Fed is the tail, Treasury is the dog
9:57 Gold thesis - back to sound money as world's reserve asset
11:40 Gold allocation - still early innings, most portfolios under 5%
14:13 Jobs data skepticism - government shouldn't be gathering this data
16:13 CPI and inflation - too much liquidity still in the system
18:10 Markets still have room to run - buying opportunities ahead
20:18 NYC mayoral race - Cuomo path to victory over Mamdani
22:34 Wealth divide creating socialist candidates - inflation driving pain
24:05 Fed in a corner - can't squeeze economy like Volcker did
26:19 GSE outlook - Fannie/Freddie IPO coming in Q4
31:31 Housing market - prices weakening but reset coming in 2028
34:19 Investment opportunities - SoFi outperforming Bitcoin by 3x
36:15 Biggest risks - crypto platforms about to implode
