Predicting the Future ft. Stephen Grugett
The New Liberal Podcast
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Prediction Market Forecasting - What Is Your Ideal State?
Predictive markets need to be about something that's clear and unambiguous if you're predicting something which could have an ambiguous result in the market forecast. If there's no way for the market creator or people betting in the market to causally influence the results then the prediction market forecasting results are going to be more accurate. There are time value of money considerations so if the event you're trying to predict is like many decades out then the results will be less reliable. The closer they are to the present the more reliable those results aregoing to be.
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