The El Farol problem
Simplifying Complexity
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The Importance of Predicting the Outcome
The success of a forecasting strategy is not down to or a factor of that forecasting strategy alone. What other people's forecasting strategy is doing at the time and that's where the competition is coming from. So, you're trying to predict something that depends on how other people are trying to predict. And there isn't a final perfect answer to that. But I think this particular toy model got at how much of the economy works.
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