Bitcoin's Seller Exhaustion

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When Bitcoin drew down 77% from its all-time high in November 2018, its market cost basis was $85 billion. And then again, when it hit $15,800 in the 2021 bull market, its market costs were $126 billion. The same pattern applies to other metrics like hash rate, long-term holder supply, and lightning network capacity. So we found that after this major threshold, the coins in the Bitcoin network develop a Lindy effect of dormancy.

Welcome to the Big Ideas Monday Miniseries, brought to you by the For Your Innovation Podcast.

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To learn more, view Big Ideas 2023.

This week’s Big Ideas Monday Mini Episode focuses on Bitcoin.

We believe Bitcoin’s long-term opportunity is strengthening. Despite a turbulent year, Bitcoin has not skipped a beat. Its network fundamentals have strengthened and its holder base has become more long-term focused.

Contagion caused by centralized counterparties has elevated Bitcoin’s value propositions: decentralization, auditability, and transparency.

The price of one bitcoin could exceed $1 million in the next decade.

Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results.