Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine
80k After Hours
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Forecasting the Russian Invasion of Ukraina
Back in january, i didn't make good predictions about this. I think that there's a kind of forecasting error which is to assume that the other people whose behaviour are trying to forecast think see things the way you do. By february, those prospects had died. Actually took russia's concerns, initially nothing came out of that. But suffice it to say that at the start of febFebruary, i was at 88 % chance that Russia was oingto invade ukrane. While there was slight downsides, by feb February i was 90 plus from there on. And i think i hit 99 per cent on march 20th or 21st - just
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