Analyzing Bond Yields and Market Expectations

In this episode, Kathy interviews her colleagues Collin Martin and Cooper Howard about the team's midyear fixed income outlook, with a theme of looking beyond Treasuries. The conversation covers investment-grade corporate bonds, high-yield bonds, preferred securities, and the municipal bond market. Key topics include credit quality, tax implications, and the potential impact of the upcoming election on the muni market.

Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann offer their outlook on what investors should be watching in next week's economic data and indicators, and Kathy also highlights the recent drop in commodity prices.

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The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. 

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. 

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.

Interest income on individual municipal bonds may not be tax-exempt, depending on the bond issuer, the type of bond, or your state of residence. Interest income on bonds issued by U.S. states, cities, counties, their enterprises, and U.S territories is generally federal-tax-exempt, and state-tax-exempt for residents of the state in which the issuer resides. In addition, municipal bond interest for bonds issued in U.S. territories is generally state-tax-exempt in all 50 states. Consult your tax advisor regarding your personal situation.

Tax-exempt bonds are not necessarily suitable for all investors. Information related to a security's tax-exempt status (federal and in-state) is obtained from third parties, and Schwab does not guarantee its accuracy. Tax-exempt income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Capital appreciation from bond funds and discounted bonds may be subject to state or local taxes. Capital gains are not exempt from federal income tax.

Preferred securities are a type of hybrid investment that share characteristics of both stock and bonds. They are often callable, meaning the issuing company may redeem the security at a certain price after a certain date. Such call features, and the timing of a call, may affect the security’s yield. Preferred securities generally have lower credit ratings and a lower claim to assets than the issuer's individual bonds. Like bonds, prices of preferred securities tend to move inversely with interest rates, so their prices may fall during periods of rising interest rates. Investment value will fluctuate, and preferred securities, when sold before maturity, may be worth more or less than original cost. Preferred securities are subject to various other risks including changes in interest rates and credit quality, default risks, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, deferral risk, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.

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Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

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