Predicting the Future ft. Stephen Grugett
The New Liberal Podcast
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Prediction Markets - Are They Good?
Manifold performed better than any of their real money prediction markets on the most recent midterm elections. But very surprisingly we did slightly worse than 538 and metaculous 538 is a poll aggregator using some stats magic. Since we open source near and all of our information if you want to do any number crunching on our platform you can. Yeah I'm not surprised about the 538 thing I'll come back to that especially for political markets.
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