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Ep 128: Steven Pinker’s ”Rationality” Chapter 5 ”Beliefs & Evidence (Bayesian Reasoning” Remarks & Analysis

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Zika Test

Only about one in ten thousand of those who come back from brazil will actually have the virus. The test, after all, is not perfect - it's wrong one % of the time. If you've never been to Brazil and tested positive on a test that's 99% accurate, what's the best explanation?

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