Why Voters Reward Fighters Over Warmth

Rich Thau, moderator of the Swing Voter Project joins Chuck Todd to dig into what America’s elusive swing voters are really thinking heading into 2028. Thau, known for his in-depth focus group research, explains how his team identifies true persuadable voters and what he’s hearing from them behind closed doors — from deep economic anxiety to their conflicted feelings about both Trump and Harris. He shares why many voters still give Trump credit for “doing something,” why Biden’s messaging never landed, and how gender and race remain stubborn barriers for Democratic candidates.

Chuck and Rich also explore how social media has replaced traditional news, why most swing voters can’t name a single Biden accomplishment, and how reform ideas like limiting presidential pardons or setting age caps for candidates could reshape American politics. It’s an eye-opening look at how frustrated, distracted, and disillusioned voters might once again decide the direction of the country.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Rich Thau joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:00 The value of focus groups in understanding voter opinions

03:15 The pandemic made it easier to conduct focus groups remotely

04:30 The challenges of remote focus groups

05:30 How to prevent one loud person from hijacking a focus group

07:30 Can you be an effective moderator if people know who you are?

09:30 Do you check voter files to ensure people are swing voters?

10:30 The screening process for focus group participants

13:15 Voters express anti-Trump comments but wouldn’t change vote to Harris

17:30 Voters will twist themselves into pretzels for why they couldn’t vote Harris

18:00 Many voters wouldn’t vote Harris due to her race and gender

19:00 Gender was a disqualifier for Clinton & Harris

22:15 Voters are following tariff news very closely

22:45 Nearly half of voters couldn’t name a Biden achievement

23:15 Only Biden achievement voters were aware of was student debt relief

24:00 Voters think that Trump is at least doing something

26:00 Biden wasn’t built for the modern media, couldn’t message his wins

27:00 Trump has mastered the attention economy

27:45 Candidates can’t rely on the media to communicate for them

31:15 Voters thought Obama & Biden overreached as much as Trump

32:45 Trump’s consolidation of power doesn’t seem unusual to swing voters

34:15 Many voters are getting their news exclusively from social media

36:45 Swing voters completely miss the process part of government

38:15 If voters could ask Trump anything, Epstein question most common

40:15 Swing voters bake in the worst things about Trump and vote for him anyway

41:00 Biggest concern of swing voters is the economy and cost of living

43:15 Swing voters viewed both Harris and Trump as unpleasant choices

44:00 No Democrats are breaking through positively to swing voters

44:45 Swing voters didn’t like Gavin Newsom’s trolling social posts

47:15 Are swing voters skeptical of big tech and consolidated power

48:15 Swing voters are easily dissatisfied and looking for someone new

50:15 Most swing voters don’t know the people in Trump’s cabinet

51:30 Swing voters aren’t pining for a third party alternative

52:45 Setting age limits for presidents would be popular 

48:30 Biden & Trump pardons have enraged swing voters

56:15 Voters could be looking for another major change in 2028

56:45 Voters could be open to several new constitutional amendments

58:45 Pardon power could be shifted from president to a board

59:45 Reform and corruption could be a powerful message

1:01:00 Candidates will need a good answer for AI

1:02:15 Regional trends in swing voters?

1:05:15 Where to find Rich’s work

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