Seven: Prof Tetlock on why accurate forecasting matters for everything, and how you can do it better
Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours
Logical Consistency in Probability
You can create categories of risks that have higher probability, and you can assess those categories. There are logical consistency checks on probabilities at the extreme range that can be implemented. It is useful to implement a kind of forecasting in one's personal life - career suest. All these things are potentially very important, verytrelevant, quite hard to estimate. When you talk about making predictions about your behaviour and the behaviour of people with whom you're in frequent interaction, youre your spouse and your co workers and so forth. You're no longer just forecaster. You're a player. Thy're not playing an accuracy game now they're playing a confidence infusion game. They're playing a political mobilization
Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts
