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Dave Sekera: Taking the Market’s Temperature

The Long View

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The Probability of a Recession

Bonds took a beating last year. They're up a little bit this year, but down after inflation. So what is history suggest will be the tipping point where higher bond yields more than compensate for capital losses from rising interest rates? Right now, I would look for when bond yields provide investors with a positive real rate of return over inflation. And that combined with inflation being on a downward trajectory is really kind of that tipping point, I think that you're looking for. Inflation does continue to keep moderating. Our US economics team is looking for inflation to drop to a 2% year over year run rate by the end of this year and thereafter.

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