Climate Change and Global Catastrophes

Even in the top one percent of worst scenarios, our guess is that it is extremely unlikely for premature deaths due to climate change to exceed a billion people. This loss would likely be gradual, for example over a century, and due to things like declining economic productivity rather than an all-at-once catastrophic collapse. All in all, we think the risk of a sub-extinction level global catastrophe that kills a billion or more people from climate change is still very low. But if you don't agree with our focus on existential risks, perhaps because you think where nearly guaranteed to survive the next few centuries, you might still consider how else climate change could affect generations long into the future. Carbon