How Can We Predict Success?

i agree with you entirely that humans are really bad at predicting. We, along with many other people, have tried to interrogate the evidence on prediction. And it turned out that in each case, the people who were supposed to be the best were basically no better than chance. I think it's absolutely the case in many companies that half of the salespeople are not there even, like, six months later. But that's said, i'm totally on board with you there.