Impending Timelines of Powerful AI Development

This chapter explores the prevailing sentiments on the anticipated timeline for powerful AI technologies, focusing on the belief that major advancements may happen between 2025 and 2030. It also considers the implications of a potential delay beyond 2030, highlighting the complexities surrounding AI development.

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In this episode of The Cognitive Revolution, Nathan explores the complex intersection of AI development and international relations with Robert Wright, publisher of the Nonzero Newsletter. They examine the growing militarization of AI, US-China relations, and the concerning trajectory of what Wright calls "the chip war." Drawing from Nathan's recent experience at The Curve conference and an AI wargame simulation, they discuss the risks of an AI arms race and search for alternative paths to avoid catastrophic conflict between global powers. Join us for this crucial conversation about the future of AI governance and international cooperation.

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CHAPTERS:

(00:00:00) Teaser

(00:00:59) Sponsors: Incogni

(00:02:20) About the Episode

(00:05:56) Introducing AI2

(00:09:56) Tulu: Deep Dive (Part 1)

(00:17:43) Sponsors: Notion | Shopify

(00:20:38) Open vs. Closed Recipes

(00:29:48) Compute & Value (Part 1)

(00:34:22) Sponsors: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) | 80,000 Hours

(00:37:02) Compute & Value (Part 2)

(00:42:41) Model Weight Evolution