Impending Timelines of Powerful AI Development | 1min snip from "The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis

Get the app

Is an AI Arms Race Inevitable? with Robert Wright of Nonzero Newsletter & Podcast

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis

chevron_right

notes

CHAPTER

Impending Timelines of Powerful AI Development

This chapter explores the prevailing sentiments on the anticipated timeline for powerful AI technologies, focusing on the belief that major advancements may happen between 2025 and 2030. It also considers the implications of a potential delay beyond 2030, highlighting the complexities surrounding AI development.

00:00

Transcript

chevron_right

Play full episode

chevron_right

Transcript

Episode notes

In this episode of The Cognitive Revolution, Nathan explores the complex intersection of AI development and international relations with Robert Wright, publisher of the Nonzero Newsletter. They examine the growing militarization of AI, US-China relations, and the concerning trajectory of what Wright calls "the chip war." Drawing from Nathan's recent experience at The Curve conference and an AI wargame simulation, they discuss the risks of an AI arms race and search for alternative paths to avoid catastrophic conflict between global powers. Join us for this crucial conversation about the future of AI governance and international cooperation.

Subscribe to The NonZero Newsletter at https://nonzero.substack.com

Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess

RECOMMENDED PODCAST:

Unpack Pricing - Dive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg

SPONSORS:

Notion: Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/cognitiverevolution

80,000 Hours: 80,000 Hours offers free one-on-one career advising for Cognitive Revolution listeners aiming to tackle global challenges, especially in AI. They connect high-potential individuals with experts, opportunities, and personalized career plans to maximize positive impact. Apply for a free call at https://80000hours.org/cognitiverevolution to accelerate your career and contribute to solving pressing AI-related issues.

SelectQuote: Finding the right life insurance shouldn't be another task you put off. SelectQuote compares top-rated policies to get you the best coverage at the right price. Even in our AI-driven world, protecting your family's future remains essential. Get your personalized quote at https://selectquote.com/cognitive

Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI): Oracle's next-generation cloud platform delivers blazing-fast AI and ML performance with 50% less for compute and 80% less for outbound networking compared to other cloud providers13. OCI powers industry leaders with secure infrastructure and application development capabilities. New U.S. customers can get their cloud bill cut in half by switching to OCI before December 31, 2024 at https://oracle.com/cognitive

CHAPTERS:

(00:00:00) Teaser

(00:00:59) Sponsors: Incogni

(00:02:20) About the Episode

(00:05:56) Introducing AI2

(00:09:56) Tulu: Deep Dive (Part 1)

(00:17:43) Sponsors: Notion | Shopify

(00:20:38) Open vs. Closed Recipes

(00:29:48) Compute & Value (Part 1)

(00:34:22) Sponsors: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) | 80,000 Hours

(00:37:02) Compute & Value (Part 2)

(00:42:41) Model Weight Evolution