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What if Central Banks Did Nothing?
If they do start to tighten, i like to think in terms of what i call a credibility gap between inflation expectations on the one hand and real yields on the other. And when i look at that, basically we've already got the biggest gap between real yields and inflation you've had since the 19 seventies. I'm not actually convinced that inflation expectations are quite as pivotal as the central banks think they are. But the markets are now liable to respond to that, and i think that's what's creating this environment where the market says either you do the tightening or else it will turn around. Maybe not over the next two years, but death ill herr the next five years.