Speaker 1
But of course, once it's baked into the market, and you actually take that shot, there's a bit of relief, and the market tends to trade up after that. This is another exhibit that is showing what happens in the subsequent week for the first cut. And you can see that it's actually down slightly, but in the month following, the quarter following, and the year following, the market moves up. So again, people are sort of their mindsets are the right place knowing that the rate cuts will help. It's just this is what history has dictated happens prior to that cut, then after the cut So what are interest rate traders expecting? We have the September 18th meeting not too far away so they have voted 71 and a half percent believe that interest rates will be cut by about 25 basis points and 28% of interest rate traders Believe that it will be cut 50 basis points. If you were to look at this at that Monday, there were people that were calling for a much farther significant rate cut. So it looks like the markets have calmed down, but the majority, 71%, looking for at least a 25 basis point coming into the September 18th meeting. So we have two really big things happening. We have the first rate cut and we have the presidential election. And both of them are sort of combined during this period. And perhaps that's the reason why we saw such volatility over the last four weeks. I really think this is quite interesting. This takes a look at the average net fund flows for presidential years going back to 1992 through 2023. And you could see in the presidential election years that equity funds in terms of the fund flows were significantly lower versus the amount of money in money market funds. This is during the presidential election year, which we're in right now. Lots of cash typically on hand. Investors have tended to be cautious during periods leading up to elections. I know this firsthand. Many institutional investors that I've dealt with in the past during presidential years and even planning a year ahead of time, they tend to really carry a much higher cash position just because of the uncertainty of what will happen in November. However, when you look at the year after the election, you could see that there's a significant shift in fund flows out of the money markets back into equity thoughts. I don think it's gonna be any different this time. We're still in that period of uncertainty. We have a few months left till November, and you have the inflation factor and interest rate factor on top of the presidential elections and that uncertainty. So I think we will continue to see uncertainty in the market. Here is another chart sort of showing the same thing of non-election years and election years. And you can see that the average performance since 1932 in election years is definitely lower than the average performance in non-election years. So again, the election year is having a big impact on investor sentiment and how they vote with their wallets. One more here, and I think this one is a little bit more on the positive side because you could see the historical results of the S&P 500 during the years that presidents were elected. And once the performance really kicks in, you can see it's quite a positive picture. So there have been 23 elections since the S&P 500 next week ad, and 19 of the 23 years, 83% of the time, it provided positive performance. There's slight differences between Republicans and Democrats coming in, but not that significant in my mind when you're looking at the overall averages. The point is 83% of the time you saw the markets go in a positive direction. So the market continues to be volatile. There's a lot of uncertainty. And you can expect with this volatility, economic uncertainty over the Fed's outlook is resulting, as we have seen, in a market sell-off. And this is typical just before an initial Fed cut, the first cut as people refer to it. Sometimes it can even extend to the second cut. Inflation, if rate cuts are seen as a response to declining inflation, it might alter investor expectations regarding future price stability. And we have certainly seen this by shifting asset flows into different sectors over the course of the year. And that sort of goes hand in hand with the rotation, the market's reaction to rate cut recession prospects of where people invest in what sectors.