The Lag Effect Is Taking Longer Than I Thought

Many of the leading macro data points that we focus on have fallen in recent weeks and are not pointing to a similar run rate in terms of strength looking forward over the next several months. The market has started to show is if you look at credit default swaps on Treasuries, those have gone up quite a bit. So it's not a great setup. Maybe this is why people say that thing about May. I don't know. It's that April showers bring May flowers.

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