"You simply cannot use recent past performance to predict future returns," he says. "If that methodology were to work in the future, it would be random circumstance or happenstance and have nothing to do with the methodology itself"
In this episode we answer a lengthy email from Kevin about issues with popular estimates of Safe Withdrawal Rates. We then discuss the problems with and failings of some of these estimates and their underlying analysis, including why Best Practices beat Convenient Shibboleths, failures to analyze non-simplistic portfolios, misuse of the "reversion to the mean" concept, improper use of conservative assumptions and modelling software, improper use of the 30-year time frame, and the failure to incorporate well-accepted favorable assumptions.
We also discuss appeals to popularity and conflicts of interest, including safety in numbers, the use of double standards, the popularity of pessimism, and the desire to please sponsors, sell products and maintain past consistency, whether foolish or warranted.
And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.