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Episode 4 - MonteCarlo What Not To Do

Drunk Agile

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The Flaw of Averages Thinking

It's because what we're assuming is at the time. Yeah, that split rate that you've got that you calculated is probably an average, right? Not probably. I'm sure it is your average, you know, and so now, now we're building another assumption into a Monte Carlo simulation that's based on an average. It brings us into flaw of averages territory. You just made me think split rate is classic flaw of averages thinking, right?

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