Predicting the Future ft. Stephen Grugett
The New Liberal Podcast
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Prediction Markets - Is There a Restrictions?
In practice, there are all sorts of other factors which will attenuate or worsen the degree to which prediction markets can elicit true information. The most obvious one is like liquidity or the amount of money in the market. If there's only $1 that you could possibly win from trading in a marketplace, then there's not that much reason to believe that the world's experts are going to be actively thinking about the question and speculating. So the incentive actually has to be there for this type of efficiency argument to work.
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