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Scout and Soldier Mindsets (with Julia Galef)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
The Importance of Soldier Mindset in Confidence
Given how well both of them have done, at least up to today, it actually seems like evidence he was underconfident if anything. If they were independent events, the one in 10 for each of them might be like a one in 100 that each of them would do this well. And that's given the low odds he assigned, I think that suggests maybe he was under Confidence. But in this particular sense, I think yes, he was.
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