When assessing what a political leader is going to do, Marko Papic doesn’t pay much attention to what the person’s desires are. Instead, he looks at what he calls “material constraints.” In other words, what factors will limit the leader’s ability to get what he or she wants. To Papic, the chief strategist at hedge-fund seeding firm Clocktower Group, Russia’s Vladimir Putin is ignoring his material constraints with the invasion of Ukraine. And ultimately, he says, that could lead to Putin’s downfall. Papic joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the war and its effects on markets. “I give Putin 12 months, and I’m taking the under,” said Papic, the author of “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.”

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