Exploring Projection Bias and Societal Progress in Economic Futures

This insight report from the World Economic Forum summarizes some positive AI outcomes. Some proposed futures include AI enabling shared economic benefit, creating more fulfilling jobs, or allowing humans to work less – giving them time to pursue more satisfying activities like volunteering, exploration, or self-improvement. It also discusses common problems that prevent people from making good predictions about the future.

Note: this report was released before ChatGPT, which seems to have shifted expert predictions about when AI systems might be broadly capable at completing most cognitive labor (see Section 3 exhibit 6 of the McKinsey resource below). Keep this in mind when reviewing section 1.1.

Original text:
https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Positive_AI_Economic_Futures_2021.pdf

Authors:
Stuart Russell, Daniel Susskind

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