Amazon Is Going to Close Its Doors

EP284 - 2022 Annual Predictions h

2021 Predictions Recap

Jason:

1. Made to Order apparel business > 9 figures Yes
2. Retailer offers viable health alt insurance option to consumers No
3. Grocery E-Com > 10%  someone deploys(not pilots) MFC Yes
4. Amazon Shopify Competitor (shipping solution) No
5. Retail Media > $20B Yes

Bonus – More store closures in 2021 than 2020. No

Jason Total Score: 3 of 5

Scot:

1. Amazon move to same day prime by opening a huge wave of neighborhood DCs (near DSPs) Yes
2. Shipping (Shopify) – launch own DSP No
3. Shopify marketplace No
4. ‘zero friction addiction’ sticks – I’ve seen 30-40% repeated a lot, I think it’s 60-80%. commerce penetration says at 16% or better in 2021. Yes
5. spac/ipo? Dnvb wave Yes

Bonus: post-covid anti-consumerism/materialism wave No

Scot Total Score: 3 of 5

We have a tie, including the tie-breaker. Here are some relevent links:

• eMarketer recap of Retail Media Networks
• Bricks Meets Clicks analysis of digital grocery space

Jason:

1. NFTs, Web 3, Metaverse, and Ultrafast delivery services are all overhyped and don’t deliver meaningful commerce revenue in 2022.
2. Shein exceeds $30B in annual sales, disrupting apparel industry
3. Adoption of BNPL services slows down to less than 15% CAGR in 2022.
4. Amazon opens more than 100 Amazon Fresh grocery stores
5. Last Mile evolves Veho, X-Delivery, shipium, or Instacart gets aquired

Scot:

1. Amazon launches a competitor to Shopify webstore, possibly via a headless solution on AWS
2. Amazon wins ultra-fast delivery. Gopuff, Gorilla, or  Jokr goes out of business in 2022
3. Metaverse gets lots of buzz but no revenue
4. Livestream commerce goes mainstream in the US 
5. Fabric gets acquired

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Episode 284 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, January 6th, 2022.

ttp://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.