What Constitutes an Explosive Investment in Machine Learning Hardware?

Allocation of resources in computing hardware should be expected to vary according to which timeline we find ourselves in, given the safe assumption that more compute is useful for most paths to AGI. If you observe a massive spike in machine learning hardware development and hardware purchases after a notable machine learning milestone, it is not proof that you are living in a world with shorter timelines. In those worlds, huge market value is greedily accessible because it doesn't require fundamental breakthroughs; short-term business incentives are obvious. The next question is what constitutes an explosive investment inMachine Learning hardware? What would be sufficient to shorten timeline estimates? Take a moment to make a few estimates before scrolling.