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Surveillance: Labor Market Sends Mixed Signals

Bloomberg Surveillance

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The Fed's Expectations for Rate Cuts in September

I don't see any evidence for rate cuts coming anytime soon. They remember what happened to the Fed in the late 1970s, early 80s when they thought, ah, we've vanquished inflation. Inflation went back up and then had to raise rates to double digit levels. Now there could be some sort of geopolitical event or something extreme like that that happens. But for that, the Fed is going to hang tough. How high is the threshold right now to cut? Oh, I think it'd be very, very high.

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