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Overconfidence, Under-Reaction, and Warren Buffett’s Investments

This Week in Intelligent Investing

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The Overconfidence of the Market in Buffett's Trades

The clearest explanation for Buffett's edge is actually behavioral or time horizon. And the farther you go out, the less an information edge matters. The chances of this being all luck over the entire duration of the sample period is less than 1% at one point. I think they even assigned it like somewhere between one basis point and 64 basis points as the percent chance of thisBeing all luck attributable to Buffett.

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