The Oil Price Paradox and the Bond Market Risk

Luke Gromen, founder and president of FFTT, discussed the geopolitical and economic implications of the US and China’s competition for critical minerals and infrastructure, particularly in the context of rare earth elements and semiconductor technology. Gromen highlighted the US’s recognition of the unsustainability of its current economic model, which has led to a significant reliance on China for manufacturing and industrial output. He emphasized that the US’s high debt-to-GDP ratio and political instability necessitate a shift in policy to re-industrialize and strengthen its domestic industrial base.

Gromen argued that China’s strategic initiatives, such as the China 2025 plan, have been underestimated and that China is well-positioned to win the race for high-end semiconductor and AI capabilities. He contrasted this with the US’s challenges in rebuilding its industrial infrastructure, citing examples like the delayed repair of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore. Gromen also discussed the potential for gold to serve as a rebalancing mechanism for the global economy, given its role as a neutral reserve asset. He suggested that central banks buying gold signals a shift towards a more stable economic system and that a significant rise in gold prices could help address the US’s debt issues.

Some Competent Links:
Website: https://competentinvestor.com
Substack: https://competentmanpod.substack.com/
X: https://x.com/CompetentManPod
Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-7699939

Luke also touches on the role of Bitcoin and stablecoins in the global financial system, arguing that while stablecoins could provide short-term benefits, they may not be a sustainable solution. He expresses skepticism about the US government’s ability to implement effective policies without causing further economic disruptions. Gromen concluded by emphasizing the importance of understanding the broader economic context and being prepared for elevated market volatility. He recommended investing in physical gold, Bitcoin, and electrical infrastructure as sectors poised to benefit from the current economic environment.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:31 – US-China Minerals Race
00:04:28 – Semiconductor Supply Competition
00:13:30 – Rebuilding US Industry Challenges
00:18:29 – Government Mining Investments
00:23:40 – Oil Price Paradox Explained
00:27:13 – Gold as Escape Valve
00:32:38 – Bitcoin Stablecoin Dynamics
00:42:36 – Central Banks Hoarding Gold
00:46:40 – Risks to Gold Rally
00:57:43 – Banking Liquidity Concerns
01:03:19 – Sectors for Investment
01:04:32 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/lukegromen
Website: https://fftt-llc.com/

Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC’s flagship weekly research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s customers.

In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC (“Forest for the Trees”), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks.

Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003.