4min chapter

The Rational Reminder Podcast cover image

Expected Returns and Factor Investing (EP.213)

The Rational Reminder Podcast

CHAPTER

Is Academic Research Destroying Stock Return Predictability?

We use the approach they develop in their paper to temper our expectations based on the historical data. The premiums don't go away, but they are about 32 % lower out a sample after publication. Even after that hair cut, they're still meaningful, as we'll get to in a second. So given factors are real, that it's not just data mining, how do you pick which factors you want to tilt toward? And there's other stuf in there too, like from the actual implementation perspective of portfolio theory.

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