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Prediction Market FAQ

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

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3 Reasons Why Prediction Markets Are Better Than Your Own Opinion

If you think you're smarter than prediction markets, bet on them and see what happens. A few people might find that over the long run they do win money. If there were no such thing as prediction markets and epidemiologist said 70% it wouldn't be weird to give non-experts like Warren Buffett final judgment in which of two experts is right? Yes, but I don't think this is avoidable.

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